Tuesday, October 29, 2019

THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM KYARR WEAKENED INTO EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TODAY MORNING, TO FURTHER WEAKEN INTO VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM IN NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TO DISSIPATE IN SEA ITSELF AROUND 3RD/4TH NOVEMBER.

SUPER CYCLONIC STORM KYARR  CHURNING IN WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.
THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM KYARR WEAKENED INTO EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TODAY MORNING, TO FURTHER WEAKEN INTO VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM IN NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TO DISSIPATE IN SEA ITSELF AROUND 3RD/4TH NOVEMBER.

Highlights:
1) The super cyclone "KYARR" is the first cyclonic storm in the north Indian ocean to reach super cyclone status after 12 Years.

2) The total accumulated cyclone energy recorded this season in the north Indian ocean is the highest surpassing 2007.

3) The ESCS kyarr is very likely to dissipate in the sea itself around 3rd/4th November.

4) The impact of climate change on the Arabian sea (especially on the formation of weather systems).

India: From the beginning of the post-monsoon season, Both the north Indian ocean seas I.e The Arabian sea and the Bay of Bengal sea are active, especially the Arabian sea is mega active. This resulted in excess to large excess rains in south peninsular India,  Maharashtra,  Goa Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, and Jharkhand.

The cyclonic storm kyarr formed on 25th October 2019 over east central Arabian Sea off south Maharashtra coast, after which due to warm sea surface temperature, low vertical wind shear, and moist environment it went through rapid intensification process. It intensified into a severe cyclone on the 25th evening, very severe cyclone on 26th morning, extremely severe cyclone on 26th late evening and super cyclone on 27th morning. It is the first cyclone to reach super cyclone status in the north Indian ocean after 12 years I.e after the super cyclone gonu in 2007, which battered the northeastern tip of oman as a very severe cyclonic storm with winds of about 150 kph(90mph) causing 50+ deaths.

The 2019 north Indian ocean cyclone season is the most active cyclone season on record in terms of accumulated cyclone energy(ACE),  surpassing 2007. Furthermore, the season has been moderately active, with five cyclonic storms, four others formed as very severe cyclonic storms and one super cyclonic storm.
ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 63 km/h (39mph).

The ESCS Kyarr will now go through the weakening process, it is expected to weaken into a very severe cyclone in the next 12-24 hours, and further accordingly. It is very likely to move southwestwards off Oman &  Yemen coast and weaken into a depression on 2nd November. It is likely to dissipate in the sea off Yemen & Somalia coast.

The impact of climate change on the Arabian sea (especially on the formation of weather systems).
According to Jeff masters the author of Scientific American blog, The impact of climate change on the Arabian sea is as follows:
The North Indian Ocean has two tropical cyclone seasons—one centered in May, before the onset of the monsoon, and one centered in October/November after the monsoon has waned. During the June – September peak of the monsoon, tropical cyclones are uncommon, due to interference from the monsoon circulation.  Since the introduction of reliable satellite data in 1998 over the Arabian Sea, there had never been a post-monsoon Arabian Sea tropical cyclone with 3-minute average winds of at least 105 mph (the threshold for extremely severe cyclonic storms, as classified by the India Meteorological Department)--until 2014. But with Kyarr’s formation, we have now seen five since 2014: Nilofar in 2014, Chapala and Megh in 2015, Ockhi in 2017, and now Kyarr in 2019. (There was also one such storm recorded before the onset of reliable satellite data in 1998, though: an unnamed November 1977 cyclone).

This unprecedented shift in tropical cyclone activity led to a 2017 modeling study by Murakami et al. which concluded that human-caused climate change had increased the probability of powerful post-monsoon tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea, and that this risk would increase further in the future--with potentially damaging consequences to the nations bordering the Arabian Sea. In a 2018 review paper by 11 hurricane scientists (Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I. Detection and Attribution), all 11 authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests that was a detectable increase in post-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea during the 1998 – 2015 period; 8 of 11 authors concluded that human-caused climate change contributed to the increase.

Image credit: NASA.

Friday, October 25, 2019

THE PROBABLE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR TO FORM IN NEXT 12 HOURS, TO RECURVE AND HEAD TOWARDS OMAN AND YEMEN. NO DIRECT IMPACT ON THE WEST COAST OF INDIA.

Man Driving a Car Through The Intense Storm.
THE PROBABLE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR TO FORM IN NEXT 12 HOURS, TO RECURVE AND  HEAD TOWARDS OMAN AND YEMEN. NO DIRECT IMPACT ON THE WEST COAST OF INDIA. 

India: Today many places of northern Mumbai suburbs, Thane and Vasai & Virar region received sudden heavy rains during evening hours, the reason for the rains was the deep depression which is persisting over east-central Arabian sea moving slowly east-northeastwards. This system is about 310 km southwest of Ratnagiri(Maharashtra) and 450 km southwest of Mumbai(Maharashtra) as of 5:30 pm today. 

Future Track Of The System:
This system which is currently a deep depression will intensify into a cyclonic storm kyarr during the next 6-12 hours and will track east-northeastwards till tomorrow evening. Afterward, it will start the recurving process and will start moving in west/northwest direction away from the Konkan & Goa and Karnataka coast. This storm will intensify rapidly into a severe cyclonic storm in the next 24 hours and will move towards Oman and Yemen. It is likely to reach there by evening of 30th October or the morning of 31st October.

Rainfall Over Mumbai & Vasai-Virar Region During Next 2 Days: 
Whenever strong systems form they attract moisture towards them, as a result, there will be a reduction in rainfall intensity. The system is far off at a good distance from Mumbai & Vasai-Virar Region. The peripherals of the system will give a few goods spells of rain especially during the evening hours of  Saturday and afternoon hours of Sunday. Light to moderate rains can be seen occasionally. 
Next 2 days rain accumulation: around 25-35 mm.

Cyclone Kyarr Track According To IMD:


The Deep Depression System Tracked by IMD:







Sunday, October 20, 2019

MAHARASHTRA ASSEMBLY ELECTION 2019: COMFORTABLE WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS LIKELY IN KONKAN, SOUTH MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, AND MARATHAWADA.

People Standing In Queue To Give Their Value Vote
 MAHARASHTRA ASSEMBLY ELECTION 2019: COMFORTABLE WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS LIKELY IN KONKAN, SOUTH MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, AND MARATHAWADA.

Maharashtra: The state of Maharashtra is going to elect a new assembly on 21st October 2019. There are about 3,239 candidates on the list for 288 seats. The election process will officially begin at morning 7:00 am and will get concluded at evening 6:00 pm on the same day. As merely a few hours are remaining for the election process to begin the weather of Maharashtra seems to be in another mood. 

Let's have a look at Maharashtra weather subdivision wise during election hours(from 7:00 am to 6:00 pm):

Konkan
Temperature(max/min): 28-29/24-25.
Sky condition: Mostly cloudy skies to prevail.
Rain Forecast: From 7:00 am to 10:00 am, Mainly light rains/drizzle are likely at north Konkan districts such as palghar, thane, Mumbai suburban and Mumbai city, while The Raigad district will receive light to moderate. From 10:00 am to 6:00 pm, dry weather conditions will prevail with cloudy skies and comfortable weather, one or two light spells cannot be ruled out in all the N.Konkan Districts.
South Konkan Districts are very likely to receive light showers with intervals in between throughout the election process.

Madhya Maharashtra: 
Temperature(max/min): 26-28/23-25.
Sky condition: mostly cloudy skies to prevail.
Rain forecast: The North Madhya Maharashtra Districts are likely to remain dry throughout the whole election process only a few places might see light showers in between. Comfortable weather to persist.
From 7:00 am to 1 pm, South Madhya Maharashtra region will receive light to moderate spells of rain. Intensity to increase bit between 1 pm to 6 pm wherein moderate spells with one or two intense spells can occur.

Marathawada
Temperature(max/min): 28-30/23-25.
Sky condition: partly cloudy to cloudy skies.
Rain forecast: mostly dry weather to persist with few places recording very light to light rains in between throughout the election process hours.

Vidarbha: 
Temperature(max/min): 30-32/21-22.
Sky condition:  partly cloudy skies becoming cloudy in between.
Rain forecast: From 7:00 am to 12:00 pm, the Chandrapur & gadchiroli districts are likely to see a few light to moderate spells of rain. The remaining districts of Vidarbha will mostly remain dry throughout the election process. 

Note: Weather forecast is given for only between 7:00 am to 6:00 pm.

Thursday, October 17, 2019

WEATHER FORECAST OF THE MUMBAI REGION FOR NEXT 3 DAYS.

Mumbai Night View
WEATHER FORECAST OF THE MUMBAI REGION FOR NEXT 3 DAYS.

India: The Southwest monsoon 2019 has finally withdrawn from the entire country on 16th October 2019. The withdrawal commencement had broken the all-time record. The withdrawal started on the 9th of October from west Rajasthan. One of the interesting facts is that monsoon entirely withdraws from the country in just 8 days making it one of the fastest withdrawal in history. As soon as the southwest monsoon signed off, the northeast monsoon has commenced in south India. I.e the regions of Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala & south interior Karnataka.

Mumbai Weather Forecast for the Next 3 Days:

Friday 18th October:
Temperature(max/min): 32-34/ 26-28.
Wind: Mostly North/Northeast direction. Max speed 10-12 km/hr.
Sky conditions: clear skies becoming partly cloudy in the evening.
Rain: post 1 pm there is a very slim chance of light thundershower. Mostly between 1 pm - 6 pm. Rain amount(12:00am today to 12am tomorrow): 0-5mm.

Saturday 19th October:
Temperature(max/min): 29-31/ 26-27.
Wind: Mostly Northeast direction. max speed 10-12 km/hr.
Sky Condition: Mainly cloudy skies to prevail.
Rain: light rains are possible throughout the day, to peak up some pace from night I.e from 10 pm. Rain amount(12:00am today to 12am tomorrow): 10-20mm.

Sunday 20th October:
Temperature(max/min): 26-28/ 25-26.
Wind: Mostly Northeast direction. max speed 10-12 km/hr.
Sky Condition: Mainly cloudy skies to prevail.
Rain: A few lights to moderate with isolated heavy spells of rain is possible from early morning hours till 5 pm. After that, the intensity is likely to reduce with only light rains between 6 pm & 11 pm. Rain amount(12:00am today to 12am tomorrow): 30-50mm.

Note:- If the conditions change, I will update It.

WEATHER FORECAST OF THE VASAI-VIRAR REGION FOR NEXT 3 DAYS.

Vasai Fort - Maharashtra

WEATHER FORECAST OF THE VASAI-VIRAR REGION FOR NEXT 3 DAYS.

India: The Southwest monsoon 2019 has finally withdrawn from the entire country on 16th October 2019. The withdrawal commencement had broken the all-time record. The withdrawal started on the 9th of October from west Rajasthan. One of the interesting facts is that monsoon entirely withdraws from the country in just 8 days making it one of the fastest withdrawal in history. As soon as the southwest monsoon signed off, the northeast monsoon has commenced in south India. I.e the regions of Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala & south interior Karnataka.

Vasai-Virar Weather Forecast for the Next 3 Days:

Friday 18th October:
Temperature(max/min): 32-34/ 26-28.
Wind: Mostly North/Northeast direction. Max speed 10-12 km/hr.
Sky conditions: clear skies becoming partly cloudy in the evening.
Rain: post 1 pm there is a very slim chance of light thundershower. Mostly between 1 pm - 6 pm. Rain amount: 0-2mm.

Saturday 19th October:
Temperature(max/min): 29-31/ 26-27.
Wind: Mostly Northeast direction. max speed 10-12 km/hr.
Sky Condition: Mainly cloudy skies to prevail.
Rain: light rains are possible throughout the day, to peak up some pace from night I.e from 10 pm. Rain amount: 5-15mm.

Sunday 20th October:
Temperature(max/min): 26-28/ 25-26.
Wind: Mostly Northeast direction. max speed 10-12 km/hr.
Sky Condition: Mainly cloudy skies to prevail.
Rain: A few lights to moderate with isolated heavy spells of rain is possible from early morning hours till 5 pm. After that, the intensity is likely to reduce with only light rains between 6 pm & 11 pm. Rain amount: 30-40mm.

Note:- If the conditions change, I will update It.


Wednesday, October 16, 2019

INDIA WEATHER BLOG SELECTED IN TOP 100 WEATHER BLOGS IN THE WORLD BY FEEDSPOT.

India weather blog in top 100 weather blogs on the web

INDIA WEATHER BLOG SELECTED IN TOP 100 WEATHER BLOGS IN THE WORLD BY FEEDSPOT.


Today, It's one of the biggest and proud moment for me and all of my viewers as a family, as my curiosity, love, and passion towards the weather have been given appreciation on the big stage by the Feedspot organization. I am very glad and optimistic to be part of the top 100 weather blogs on the web.

What is Feedspot?

Feedspot is the content reader for reading all your favorite websites in one place.
  1. Add your favorite Blogs, News websites, RSS Feeds, Youtube Channels, and Social sites accounts to your Feedspot account and read new updates from one place.
  2. Using a content reader helps you keep up with your top information sources - content comes straight to you, saving you the time to go and check every site on your own.
  3. Feedspot also keeps track of which items you've read, so you only see the unread items when you come back, even when you log in on different devices.
Link for the Top 100 Weather Blogs on the Web:


Thank you!

Monday, October 14, 2019

The Record-Breaking Southwest Monsoon Season 2019 Has Finally Withdrawn From Mumbai Today.

Gateway of India, Mumbai
The Record-Breaking Southwest Monsoon Season 2019 Has Finally Withdrawn From Mumbai Today.

Mumbai: After a long wait the record-breaking southwest monsoon 2019 has officially withdrawn from Mumbai today. This season the monsoon withdrawal commenced on 9th October from the extreme northwestern part of the country I.e from the northwestern part of Rajasthan state with a record-setting delay of about staggering  38 days. Monsoon normally withdraws from northwestern Rajasthan after 1st September, It is never attempted before 1st September.

The Reasons for the Monsoon 2019 Withdrawal Record Delay:
1) The back to back-formation of low-pressure areas over the north bay and moving in west/northwest direction towards the Rajasthan state. 
2) The depression that had formed over the Gujarat state. Which halted the monsoon withdrawal process. It was attracting humid wind from both the Arabian sea as well as the Bay of Bengal. It had given very heavy rains in Gujarat as well as southeastern Rajasthan.

Both these reasons halted the process of anticyclone formation over the Rajasthan. As it is the formation of a high-pressure area over the northwestern region of the country which causes the monsoon to withdraw.  
High-pressure areas are those which are associated with slow wind movement and stable weather.

Monsoon Withdrawal 2019 dates as per IMD:

Oct 9th: Northwest Rajasthan, southern Punjab, few parts of west & south Haryana.

Oct 10th: Northeast Rajasthan, extreme north M.P, entire west Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana & Delhi, most parts of west U.P, Few parts of east U.P.

Oct 11th: Few parts of the north  Arabian sea, Most parts of Kutch, North Gujarat region, North M.P, Entire U.P, and west Bihar.

Oct 12th: Most parts of north Arabian sea, entire kutch, and Bihar, Most parts of Saurashtra, Gujarat region, Jharkhand few parts of North Chattisgarh, and West Bengal

Oct 13th: Entire Saurashtra, most parts of the Gujarat region, M.P and few more parts of north Chhattisgarh.

Oct 14th: Entire north Arabian sea, Vidarbha, northeast India, West Bengal, Jharkhand. Most parts of northern Maharashtra, Few parts of Odisha and extreme north Telangana & north bay.

Conditions are favorable for further withdrawal of southwest monsoon from west & central India during next 2 days.

Image source: IMD.


Sunday, October 13, 2019

Mumbai Weather Forecast for Next 3 Days

Mumbai_Skyline

Mumbai Weather Forecast for next 3 Days


Sunday 13th:
Post 1 pm there is a chance of hit /miss thundershower. Most probably between 1 pm and 9 pm. Navi Mumbai & thane region has more chance.
Rain: Mainly very light to light rainfall can be anticipated,  relies on the area in which thundershower happens.
Temperature(Max/Min): 34-36/25-26.
Sky Condition: Clear skies becoming partly cloudy in the evening.

Monday 14th:
Very low probability of thundershower.
Almost nil, but there's an outside chance.
Rain: mainly dry weather to prevail throughout the day. No chance of rain.
Temperature(Max/Min): 34-36/26-27.
Sky condition: Clear skies with one or two clouds towards evening.

Tuesday 15th:
Dry weather to prevail.
Rain: mainly dry weather to prevail throughout the day. No chance of rain.
Temperature(Max/Min): 34-36/25-26.
Sky condition: Clear skies with one or two clouds towards evening.

Last 24 hours rain: 

Mumbai(SCZ): 0.0mm.
Mumbai(CLB): 0.0mm.

Since October 1st:

Mumbai(SCZ): 25mm. 
Mumbai(CLB): 14.8mm.
  

Tuesday, October 8, 2019

INDIA MONSOON 2019: Monsoon Withdrawal Delayed By Stunning 36 Days, Indication of Withdrawal from 10th Oct.


India: After glimpsing Four months-long monsoon season, which has given record-breaking rains to almost 3/4th area of the country the whole country is now praying for its withdrawal. Monsoon season 2019 statistically ended with an above-normal rainfall of about (110%). The main beneficiaries were the central India region and south India region which received about 29% and 16% surplus rains. Talking about the monsoon 2019 record, Monsoon 2019 gave the highest rains in the last 25 years.

Central India region:
In the central India region, The state of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and goa experienced record floods. Hundreds of people lost their life with still many people missing, lakh of houses were completely destroyed, Thousands of houses partially eradicated. Wherein the above all the states recorded excess category rains while Odisha and Chhattisgarh received normal rains on the positive side. The main reason for such humongous rains was the series of low-pressure areas developing over the north bay and traveling in westerly/northwesterly direction.

South India region:
Its Monsoon story was identical to that of the central India region. Despite delayed arrival of monsoon, all the states of south India received either normal monsoon rains or excess monsoon rains, wherein the state of  Karnataka received excess rains while remaining states received normal rains in the positive side. The Karnataka and Kerala underwent severe flooding which caused huge loss of life and property.

Monsoon Withdrawal:
The monsoon usually starts withdrawing from the northwestern part of the country after 1st September but this year there is a different scenario. after a delay of about 36 days. Monsoon has shown signs of withdrawal from the northwestern part of the country. according to imd, most probably Monsoon is all set to withdraw after 2 days I.e from 10th Oct. As an anticyclone is persisting over Rajasthan in the lower troposphere. After which in the next week it will withdraw from the whole northwestern India region and few parts of central India.

Image credit: Time.com

Saturday, October 5, 2019

MUMBAI MONSOON 2019: EXTRAORDINARY MONSOON SEASON STATISTICALLY COMES TO AN END IN MUMBAI, 5 DAYS OF EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS IN SINGLE SEASON , ALL TIME MONSOON SEASON RAINFALL RECORD BROKEN.



India: The phenomenal four months-long 2019 Monsoon season statistically came to an end on 30th September 2019, as per IMD. This Monsoon season was the best performer in the last 25 years, as it received 10% more rains than the long-period average which stands at 88cm for the country as a whole. The country is divided into four regions a) Northwest region b) East and Northeast India region c) Central India region and d) South peninsular India region. The central India region was the best performer as it recorded stunning 129% excess amounts of rains, south peninsular India recorded about 116% excess rains, which was followed by northwest India and east and northeast which recorded less than normal rains of about 98% and 88% respectively. Talking about monsoon withdrawal, we are in the 1st week of Oct but still, the withdrawal process has not begun.  Normally Southwest Monsoon starts withdrawing from the western part of the country I.e west Rajasthan after 1st September. It may begin withdrawing from 2nd week of September. Now Let's focus on the Mumbai region

Mumbai:
Extraordinary monsoon season witnessed by the Mumbai region, as it broke all-time monsoon rain record which was recorded in the year 1954. The city received the 2nd highest July rainfall and was few mm away for setting a new all-time high  July rain record.  The city also managed to broke the all-time September month rain record. The City recorded 5 days of extreme rainfall event in one single season, which is alarming.

Monsoon Onset in Mumbai :
The normal monsoon onset date for Mumbai is June 10th, but the monsoon 2019 made its onset on June 25th. It was a delay of about 15 days. The main reason for the delay was the cyclone Vayu, which had formed in the Arabian sea which weakened the monsoon current & soaked all the moisture around itself.

June Monsoon Rains in Mumbai:
As the monsoon onset was delayed for about 15 days the first half of the month was almost dry, also the initial few days of 2nd half of the month followed the same path. It was the June 25th when monsoon marked its arrival in the city, after which the humongous rain show begins. It rained so much so that it surpassed the monthly mean in the last 5 days of the month.

Significant rainfall figures:
June 29th: 234.8 mm. (extreme rainfall event)
June 30th: 92.9 mm.
Monthly normal: 493mm
Actual recorded: 515.7mm

July Monsoon Rains in Mumbai
The month of July which is the rainiest month for the city also started with a bang. It rained so enormously that the entire city was brought to an almost standstill for several times. It rained so much so that it surpassed its monthly mean in the first 10 days of the month which stands at 840 mm. The rains did not stop after that and went on pouring enormously, it was just short of only a few mm of rains to set a new all-time high July rain record. July ended with a large excess category of rains and with 2nd highest rain record.
Significant rainfall figures:
July 1st: 91.9mm
July 2nd: 375.2mm(extreme rainfall event)
July 6th: 77.8mm
July 27th: 219mm(extreme rainfall event)
July 31st: 65.1mm
Month normal: 840mm
Actual recorded: 1464.8mm

August Monsoon Rains in Mumbai:
The month of August followed the same path, wherein widespread heavy to very heavy rains were recorded in the first 5 days of the month. The city was thrown out of the gear, but sooner after that, there was a lull period when the rain God did showed some mercy on Mumbai people. After which again the rains gained the intensity and started pouring enormously at the month-end.
Significant rainfall figures:
Aug 3rd: 204mm (extreme rainfall event)
Month normal: 585.2mm
Actual Recorded: 574mm

September Monsoon Rains in Mumbai:
The month of September began with a bang as the rain show began from the first day of September itself. The city was paralyzed on several occasions, severe waterlogging was seen, the lifeline of Mumbai came to a halt, air traffic was also impacted by this rains. The September monthly mean was surpassed in the first few days of the month sooner it also managed to broke the all-time high September rain record. The month of September saw widespread heavy rains and ended with a large excess category of rains. The first half of the month saw around 900mm rains, while the second half of the month saw around 216mm rains.
Significant rainfall figures:
Sep 5th: 242.2mm
Monthly normal: 341.4mm.
Actual recorded: 1115.7mm.