Tuesday, October 29, 2019

THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM KYARR WEAKENED INTO EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TODAY MORNING, TO FURTHER WEAKEN INTO VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM IN NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TO DISSIPATE IN SEA ITSELF AROUND 3RD/4TH NOVEMBER.

SUPER CYCLONIC STORM KYARR  CHURNING IN WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.
THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM KYARR WEAKENED INTO EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TODAY MORNING, TO FURTHER WEAKEN INTO VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM IN NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TO DISSIPATE IN SEA ITSELF AROUND 3RD/4TH NOVEMBER.

Highlights:
1) The super cyclone "KYARR" is the first cyclonic storm in the north Indian ocean to reach super cyclone status after 12 Years.

2) The total accumulated cyclone energy recorded this season in the north Indian ocean is the highest surpassing 2007.

3) The ESCS kyarr is very likely to dissipate in the sea itself around 3rd/4th November.

4) The impact of climate change on the Arabian sea (especially on the formation of weather systems).

India: From the beginning of the post-monsoon season, Both the north Indian ocean seas I.e The Arabian sea and the Bay of Bengal sea are active, especially the Arabian sea is mega active. This resulted in excess to large excess rains in south peninsular India,  Maharashtra,  Goa Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, and Jharkhand.

The cyclonic storm kyarr formed on 25th October 2019 over east central Arabian Sea off south Maharashtra coast, after which due to warm sea surface temperature, low vertical wind shear, and moist environment it went through rapid intensification process. It intensified into a severe cyclone on the 25th evening, very severe cyclone on 26th morning, extremely severe cyclone on 26th late evening and super cyclone on 27th morning. It is the first cyclone to reach super cyclone status in the north Indian ocean after 12 years I.e after the super cyclone gonu in 2007, which battered the northeastern tip of oman as a very severe cyclonic storm with winds of about 150 kph(90mph) causing 50+ deaths.

The 2019 north Indian ocean cyclone season is the most active cyclone season on record in terms of accumulated cyclone energy(ACE),  surpassing 2007. Furthermore, the season has been moderately active, with five cyclonic storms, four others formed as very severe cyclonic storms and one super cyclonic storm.
ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 63 km/h (39mph).

The ESCS Kyarr will now go through the weakening process, it is expected to weaken into a very severe cyclone in the next 12-24 hours, and further accordingly. It is very likely to move southwestwards off Oman &  Yemen coast and weaken into a depression on 2nd November. It is likely to dissipate in the sea off Yemen & Somalia coast.

The impact of climate change on the Arabian sea (especially on the formation of weather systems).
According to Jeff masters the author of Scientific American blog, The impact of climate change on the Arabian sea is as follows:
The North Indian Ocean has two tropical cyclone seasons—one centered in May, before the onset of the monsoon, and one centered in October/November after the monsoon has waned. During the June – September peak of the monsoon, tropical cyclones are uncommon, due to interference from the monsoon circulation.  Since the introduction of reliable satellite data in 1998 over the Arabian Sea, there had never been a post-monsoon Arabian Sea tropical cyclone with 3-minute average winds of at least 105 mph (the threshold for extremely severe cyclonic storms, as classified by the India Meteorological Department)--until 2014. But with Kyarr’s formation, we have now seen five since 2014: Nilofar in 2014, Chapala and Megh in 2015, Ockhi in 2017, and now Kyarr in 2019. (There was also one such storm recorded before the onset of reliable satellite data in 1998, though: an unnamed November 1977 cyclone).

This unprecedented shift in tropical cyclone activity led to a 2017 modeling study by Murakami et al. which concluded that human-caused climate change had increased the probability of powerful post-monsoon tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea, and that this risk would increase further in the future--with potentially damaging consequences to the nations bordering the Arabian Sea. In a 2018 review paper by 11 hurricane scientists (Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I. Detection and Attribution), all 11 authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests that was a detectable increase in post-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea during the 1998 – 2015 period; 8 of 11 authors concluded that human-caused climate change contributed to the increase.

Image credit: NASA.

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