Due to end semester exams, I was not able to write the article. However, my exams are going to end tomorrow after that I will start publishing articles. 

MUMBAI RAINS: MASSIVE RAINS LASHED MUMBAI IN VERY RARE RAIN MONTH NOVEMBER, REMNANT OF CYCLONE MAHA RESPONSIBLE, DRY WEATHER TO STEP IN TOMORROW ONWARDS.

MASSIVE RAINS LASHED MUMBAI IN VERY RARE RAIN MONTH NOVEMBER, REMNANT OF CYCLONE MAHA RESPONSIBLE, DRY WEATHER TO STEP IN TOMORROW ONWARDS.

 HIGHLIGHTS:

1) Early morning heavy rains surprised Mumbaikars.

2) Goregaon received the highest rainfall of about 72mm in the last 24 hours ending 8:30 AM today.

3) The remnant of cyclone maha responsible for today's massive rains.

4) Dry weather likely to persist tomorrow onwards.

MUMBAI: Today morning all the Mumbaikars woked up to very rare heavy November rains. The reason for such sudden heavy rain was the remnant of cyclone maha which is hovering over the northeast Arabian sea off palghar district and south of Gujarat. In fact, the month of  November normally receives only 9.9 mm of rains. This year weather-wise is very historic, the monsoon which was very deficient in the month of  June ended statistically with about 10% excess than the normal in the month of September, All-time high Mumbai monsoon rain record was broken, now recently all-time high annual Mumbai rain record is broken and many more.

As soon as monsoon withdraws from the Mumbai the rains remain fare & very few. But this time it's a different scenario the Mumbai rains are not in the mood to take a backseat they showed their magic in the month of November also.

Tomorrow's Weather Forecast Of Mumbai:

The weather over Mumbai is very likely to turn dry tomorrow onwards as the system is going to weaken further and move away from the Mumbai region. Skies will turn clear with bright sunny days and very comfortable nights. Light breeze likely to persist.

Top 10 rainest places in Mumbai last 24 hours ending today at 8:30 am:

1) Goregaon: 72mm.
2) Chincholi Fire Station: 63mm.
3) Malad Fire Station: 53mm.
4) Chirak Nagar: 50mm.
5) Pr. Thackeray Natya Mandir: 49mm.
6) Kandivali Fire Station: 49mm.
7) Mulund Fire Station: 48mm.
8) Borivali Fire Station: 43mm.
9) Dahisar Fire Station: 39mm.
10) Bhandup: 36mm.

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM "MAHA" LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN DIU AND SOMNATH AS A CYCLONIC STORM AROUND 7TH MORNING.

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM "MAHA" LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN DIU AND SOMNATH AS A 

CYCLONIC STORM AROUND 7TH MORNING. 

HIGHLIGHTS:

1) THE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING THE STRENGTH OF EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM(ESCS).

2)THE ESCS MAHA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARDS FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.

3) THE ESCS MAHA IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS RAPIDLY AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY.

4) THE ESCS STORM MAHA IS LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN DIU AND SOMNATH.

5) HEAVY RAINS WITH STRONG GUSTY WIND EXPECTED DURING LANDFALL.

6) WEATHER FORECAST OF MUMBAI & VASAI-VIRAR REGION FOR TOMORROW.

INDIA: The cyclonic storm maha rapidly intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm and then into an extremely severe cyclonic storm within 24 hours in the east-central    Arabian sea. Currently, the storm is present in the west-central Arabian sea and adjoining areas packing winds of about 170-180 kph gusting to 190 kph. 

Current Position of ESCS MAHA:

The Cyclonic Storm Maha is excepted to move in north direction for coming 3-6 hours and then it will start it's a journey towards south Gujarat coast in the east-northeast direction, gradually during Its rapid journey towards Gujarat coast it will start weakening as it will move closer to the land. The reason behind the recurve is the western disturbance which is approaching Jammu and Kashmir region.

Observed and Future Track of ESCS Maha by JTWC:

Observed & Future Track of ESCS Maha by IMD:

This Cyclone will weaken gradually into a cyclonic storm before it's landfall, it's landfall is expected between Diu and Somnath the south coastal Saurashtra region of Gujarat around 7th morning. During its landfall, the system will have a wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph associated with heavy rains.

HWRF Wind(kt) & MSLP(mb) During the Time of landfall:

The sea conditions will be very rough during the 6th/7th November, already the warning has been given to the fisherman by the government officials to come out from the deep seas.

Vasai-Virar & Mumbai weather forecast for

Tomorrow:

Tonight 5th November: Dry weather with clear skies condition.

Wednesday, 6th November: Dry weather to prevail between 12:00 am to 10:00 am with clear skies. From 10:00 am to 12:00 pm there is a very slim chance of very light rain in south Mumbai region other places to witness dry conditions with clear to partly cloudy skies conditions. Remaining part of the day to remain dry with partly cloudy skies conditions.

Temperature(max/min): 32-33/25-26.

Image credits: Britannica.com

THE JOURNEY OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM "MAHA", FOURTH CYCLONE OF THE SEASON IN THE ARABIAN SEA. TOTAL 6 CYCLONES HAVE FORMED IN THIS SEASON TILL PRESENT.

THE JOURNEY OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM "MAHA", FOURTH CYCLONE OF THE  SEASON IN THE ARABIAN SEA. TOTAL 6 CYCLONES HAVE FORMED IN THIS SEASON TILL PRESENT.

Highlights:

1) Cyclone Maha the 4th cyclone formed in the Arabian sea.

2) The Journey of the severe cyclonic storm maha.

3) Cyclone Kyarr has now weakened into Depression over the west-central Arabian sea.

India: The Arabian sea is on fire mode as back to back weather systems are forming in the basin, these weather systems are also becoming more marked due to favorable conditions such as low vertical wind shear, Warm sea surface temperatures, abundant availability of moisture, high humidity levels, etc:-. Normally only 1 cyclone or 2 cyclones forms in the Arabian sea by records. But now due to climate change the dynamics of the Arabian sea are changing, more cyclones are forming and also they are becoming more intense. Researches also say that there will be more intense cyclones as the temperatures are increasing.

The 2019 north Indian ocean cyclone season is the most active cyclone season on record in terms of accumulated cyclone energy(ACE),  surpassing 2007. Furthermore, the season has been active, with six cyclonic storms, one severe, four others formed as very severe cyclonic storms and one super cyclonic storm. ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 63 km/h (39mph).

The Journey of Severe Cyclone "Maha" as per IMD:

1. On 29th October, a low-pressure area intensified into the well-marked low-pressure area over the Comorin area and adjoining the equatorial Indian ocean.
2. In the next 12 hours, it concentrated into a depression over the Maldive, coloring area & adjoining Lakshadweep area.
3. On 30th October at 2:30 pm thee, depression further strengthened into a deep depression over Lakshadweep and adjoining S.E Arabian sea.
4. Favorable conditions led to the rapid development of the system and in just 3 hours at 5:30 pm on 30th October it intensified into a cyclone, after which it was assigned the name "maha".
5. It crossed the Lakshadweep island as a cyclonic storm with winds up to 80kmph.
6. Amini Devi and Minicoy received extremely heavy rains of about 301mm and 119mm respectively.
7. In the next 24 hours on 31st October, the system intensified into a severe cyclonic storm about 300 km off north Karnataka coast.
8. Its movement during its journey was north/northwestwards till today.

   Severe cyclone maha tracked by IMD:

The system is going to intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm in the next 6-12 hours. This system is very likely to track west/northwestwards till 5th November and enter the west-central Arabian sea. But from 5th November it is very likely to track northeastwards towards the Indian west coast due to the western disturbance.

Observed and Future Track of Severe Cyclone Maha as per IMD:

The cyclone Kyarr has weakened into depression in morning hours, it is very likely to weaken into the well-marked low-pressure area during the next 6-12 hours, tracking southwards.

THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM KYARR WEAKENED INTO EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TODAY MORNING, TO FURTHER WEAKEN INTO VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM IN NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TO DISSIPATE IN SEA ITSELF AROUND 3RD/4TH NOVEMBER.

THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM KYARR WEAKENED INTO EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TODAY MORNING, TO FURTHER WEAKEN INTO VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM IN NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TO DISSIPATE IN SEA ITSELF AROUND 3RD/4TH NOVEMBER.

Highlights:

1) The super cyclone "KYARR" is the first cyclonic storm in the north Indian ocean to reach super cyclone status after 12 Years.

2) The total accumulated cyclone energy recorded this season in the north Indian ocean is the highest surpassing 2007.

3) The ESCS kyarr is very likely to dissipate in the sea itself around 3rd/4th November.

4) The impact of climate change on the Arabian sea (especially on the formation of weather systems).

India: From the beginning of the post-monsoon season, Both the north Indian ocean seas I.e The Arabian sea and the Bay of Bengal sea are active, especially the Arabian sea is mega active. This resulted in excess to large excess rains in south peninsular India,  Maharashtra,  Goa Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, and Jharkhand.

The cyclonic storm kyarr formed on 25th October 2019 over east central Arabian Sea off south Maharashtra coast, after which due to warm sea surface temperature, low vertical wind shear, and moist environment it went through rapid intensification process. It intensified into a severe cyclone on the 25th evening, very severe cyclone on 26th morning, extremely severe cyclone on 26th late evening and super cyclone on 27th morning. It is the first cyclone to reach super cyclone status in the north Indian ocean after 12 years I.e after the super cyclone gonu in 2007, which battered the northeastern tip of oman as a very severe cyclonic storm with winds of about 150 kph(90mph) causing 50+ deaths.

The 2019 north Indian ocean cyclone season is the most active cyclone season on record in terms of accumulated cyclone energy(ACE),  surpassing 2007. Furthermore, the season has been moderately active, with five cyclonic storms, four others formed as very severe cyclonic storms and one super cyclonic storm.
ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 63 km/h (39mph).

The ESCS Kyarr will now go through the weakening process, it is expected to weaken into a very severe cyclone in the next 12-24 hours, and further accordingly. It is very likely to move southwestwards off Oman &  Yemen coast and weaken into a depression on 2nd November. It is likely to dissipate in the sea off Yemen & Somalia coast.

The impact of climate change on the Arabian sea (especially on the formation of weather systems).

According to Jeff masters the author of Scientific American blog, The impact of climate change on the Arabian sea is as follows:
The North Indian Ocean has two tropical cyclone seasons—one centered in May, before the onset of the monsoon, and one centered in October/November after the monsoon has waned. During the June – September peak of the monsoon, tropical cyclones are uncommon, due to interference from the monsoon circulation.  Since the introduction of reliable satellite data in 1998 over the Arabian Sea, there had never been a post-monsoon Arabian Sea tropical cyclone with 3-minute average winds of at least 105 mph (the threshold for extremely severe cyclonic storms, as classified by the India Meteorological Department)--until 2014. But with Kyarr’s formation, we have now seen five since 2014: Nilofar in 2014, Chapala and Megh in 2015, Ockhi in 2017, and now Kyarr in 2019. (There was also one such storm recorded before the onset of reliable satellite data in 1998, though: an unnamed November 1977 cyclone).

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• Since the introduction of reliable satellite data in 1998 over the Arabian Sea, there had never been a post-monsoon Arabian Sea tropical cyclone with 3-minute average winds of at least 105 mph (the threshold for extremely severe cyclonic storms, as classified by the India Meteorological Department)--until 2014. But with Kyarr’s formation, we have now seen five since 2014: Nilofar in 2014, Chapala and Megh in 2015, Ockhi in 2017, and now Kyarr in 2019. (There was also one such storm recorded before the onset of reliable satellite data in 1998, though: an unnamed November 1977 cyclone).

This unprecedented shift in tropical cyclone activity led to a 2017 modeling study by Murakami et al. which concluded that human-caused climate change had increased the probability of powerful post-monsoon tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea, and that this risk would increase further in the future--with potentially damaging consequences to the nations bordering the Arabian Sea. In a 2018 review paper by 11 hurricane scientists (Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I. Detection and Attribution), all 11 authors concluded that the balance of evidence suggests that was a detectable increase in post-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea during the 1998 – 2015 period; 8 of 11 authors concluded that human-caused climate change contributed to the increase.

Image credit: NASA.

THE PROBABLE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR TO FORM IN NEXT 12 HOURS, TO RECURVE AND HEAD TOWARDS OMAN AND YEMEN. NO DIRECT IMPACT ON THE WEST COAST OF INDIA.

THE PROBABLE CYCLONIC STORM KYARR TO FORM IN NEXT 12 HOURS, TO RECURVE AND  HEAD TOWARDS OMAN AND YEMEN. NO DIRECT IMPACT ON THE WEST COAST OF INDIA. 

India: Today many places of northern Mumbai suburbs, Thane and Vasai & Virar region received sudden heavy rains during evening hours, the reason for the rains was the deep depression which is persisting over east-central Arabian sea moving slowly east-northeastwards. This system is about 310 km southwest of Ratnagiri(Maharashtra) and 450 km southwest of Mumbai(Maharashtra) as of 5:30 pm today. 

Future Track Of The System:

This system which is currently a deep depression will intensify into a cyclonic storm kyarr during the next 6-12 hours and will track east-northeastwards till tomorrow evening. Afterward, it will start the recurving process and will start moving in west/northwest direction away from the Konkan & Goa and Karnataka coast. This storm will intensify rapidly into a severe cyclonic storm in the next 24 hours and will move towards Oman and Yemen. It is likely to reach there by evening of 30th October or the morning of 31st October.

Rainfall Over Mumbai & Vasai-Virar Region During Next 2 Days: 

Whenever strong systems form they attract moisture towards them, as a result, there will be a reduction in rainfall intensity. The system is far off at a good distance from Mumbai & Vasai-Virar Region. The peripherals of the system will give a few goods spells of rain especially during the evening hours of  Saturday and afternoon hours of Sunday. Light to moderate rains can be seen occasionally. 

Next 2 days rain accumulation: around 25-35 mm.

Cyclone Kyarr Track According To IMD:

The Deep Depression System Tracked by IMD:

MAHARASHTRA ASSEMBLY ELECTION 2019: COMFORTABLE WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS LIKELY IN KONKAN, SOUTH MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, AND MARATHAWADA.

 MAHARASHTRA ASSEMBLY ELECTION 2019: COMFORTABLE WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS LIKELY IN KONKAN, SOUTH MADHYA MAHARASHTRA, AND MARATHAWADA.

Maharashtra: The state of Maharashtra is going to elect a new assembly on 21st October 2019. There are about 3,239 candidates on the list for 288 seats. The election process will officially begin at morning 7:00 am and will get concluded at evening 6:00 pm on the same day. As merely a few hours are remaining for the election process to begin the weather of Maharashtra seems to be in another mood. 

Let's have a look at Maharashtra weather subdivision wise during election hours(from 7:00 am to 6:00 pm):

Konkan: 

Temperature(max/min): 28-29/24-25.

Sky condition: Mostly cloudy skies to prevail.

Rain Forecast: From 7:00 am to 10:00 am, Mainly light rains/drizzle are likely at north Konkan districts such as palghar, thane, Mumbai suburban and Mumbai city, while The Raigad district will receive light to moderate. From 10:00 am to 6:00 pm, dry weather conditions will prevail with cloudy skies and comfortable weather, one or two light spells cannot be ruled out in all the N.Konkan Districts.

South Konkan Districts are very likely to receive light showers with intervals in between throughout the election process.

Madhya Maharashtra: 

Temperature(max/min): 26-28/23-25.

Sky condition: mostly cloudy skies to prevail.

Rain forecast: The North Madhya Maharashtra Districts are likely to remain dry throughout the whole election process only a few places might see light showers in between. Comfortable weather to persist.

From 7:00 am to 1 pm, South Madhya Maharashtra region will receive light to moderate spells of rain. Intensity to increase bit between 1 pm to 6 pm wherein moderate spells with one or two intense spells can occur.

Marathawada: 

Temperature(max/min): 28-30/23-25.

Sky condition: partly cloudy to cloudy skies.

Rain forecast: mostly dry weather to persist with few places recording very light to light rains in between throughout the election process hours.

Vidarbha: 

Temperature(max/min): 30-32/21-22.

Sky condition:  partly cloudy skies becoming cloudy in between.

Rain forecast: From 7:00 am to 12:00 pm, the Chandrapur & gadchiroli districts are likely to see a few light to moderate spells of rain. The remaining districts of Vidarbha will mostly remain dry throughout the election process. 

Note: Weather forecast is given for only between 7:00 am to 6:00 pm.