When Will Monsoon End In India 2024

 

Monsoon Withdrawal Update 2024:

The monsoon protects India from the extreme summer heat and provides almost 80% of the annual rainfall from June to September month. The rainfall helps increase groundwater levels, rivers overflow, agriculture process begins altogether it brings hope and happiness to the face of every Indian.

As of now, we have arrived in mid September. The monsoon withdrawal begins from extreme northwest india from west Rajasthan on 17th September and gradually completes its cycle around 15th October.

You might have got questions about how and why monsoon withdrawal occurs. Let us see the guidelines as to when the monsoon withdrawal begins.

Monsoon Withdrawal Criteria:

Initial Withdrawal:

Timing: Not attempted before 1st September.

Criteria:

• Cessation of rainfall activity for 5 consecutive days.
• Establishment of an anticyclone in the lower troposphere (850 hPa and below).
• Significant reduction in moisture content, as observed from satellite water vapor images and tephigrams.

Further Withdrawal:

Criteria:

• Spatial continuity in withdrawal.
• Continued reduction in moisture, as observed from water vapor images.
• Prevalence of dry weather for 5 days.

Timing: Complete withdrawal from the southern peninsula and the entire country typically occurs only after 1st October, once the circulation pattern indicates a change from the southwesterly wind regime.

Current Weather Conditions:

Deep Depression Over West Bengal

Deep Depression over Bangladesh and Gangetic West Bengal:

• Location: Near latitude 22.9° N, longitude 89.2° E, about 90 km northeast of Canning and 100 km east-northeast of Kolkata.
• Movement: Moving west-northwest at 23 kmph, expected to continue as a deep depression until evening, then weaken to a depression as it moves across Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand.
• Impact: Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and potential flooding in affected regions.

Monsoon Trough:

• Location: Extends from Ganganagar, Hissar, Delhi, Bareilly, Bahraich, Patna, and Bankura to the deep depression over Bangladesh.
• Impact: Enhanced monsoon activity along its path, leading to increased rainfall in these areas.

Cyclonic Circulation over Saurashtra:

• Location: At 3.1 km above sea level.
• Impact: Possible rainfall and localized weather disturbances in the Saurashtra region.

Western Disturbance:

• Location: A trough in the middle troposphere roughly along Long. 68°E to the north of Lat. 32°N.
  
  
• Impact: Weather changes and possible precipitation in northern India, particularly in hilly areas.
  
  

Monsoon Withdrawal 2024 Update:

Anticyclone Development:

Possibility: Very low over Rajasthan and nearby regions for the next 10 days.

Impact: This means that typical high-pressure systems that could signal the start of monsoon withdrawal are unlikely to develop soon.

Moisture Availability:

Condition: Abundant moisture is present. Due to the likelihood of a deep depression carrying moist air into the region.

Monsoon Commencement:

Current Status: Unlikely to begin its withdrawal journey in the next 10 days. We’ll need to wait for a few more days to get a clearer picture of the timing for monsoon withdrawal.

GFS Model:

Forecast: Moisture is expected to persist over Rajasthan until at least 20th September. Signs of monsoon withdrawal might not be apparent until around 20th September.