Mumbai Rains: City Likely To Get Torrential Rains, Extreme Likely

Typical Heavy Mumbai Rains

Mumbai: Mumbai Rains are back after the break phase of the monsoon. The break phase is always followed by the active phase of the monsoon.

Current weather Systems:

The well-marked low- pressure area is seen off  South Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast.
The monsoon trough lies south of its normal position and is active.
The offshore trough is running from north Konkan towards the north Kerala coast.

Mumbai Forecast for 8th August:

There are 2 scenarios.

Scenario 1: GFS one of the top weather forecast model is showing the formation of a vortex right over the Mumbai MMR region. If this happens there would be extreme rains (greater than 205mm) all over the Mumbai MMR region. Vortex prediction is tricky. if there is some change in the location of formation. There would be a drastic change in the rainfall pattern. Going with this scenario I expect greater than 205mm of rain in 24hrs period. Winds would be around 40-50kmph gust 60-70kmph (coastal areas). Need to take precautions as there would be a risk of waterlogging in low-lying areas.

Scenario 2: if the vortex forms deep inside the sea. expecting heavy to very heavy rains 100mm+. overall less frequent and intense rains than scenario 1.

Wind Analysis:

850 hPa winds 8th August 5am:

700 hPa winds 8th August 5am:


850 hPa winds 8th August Late Evening:

Post a Comment

0 Comments