Monday, November 25, 2019

Due to end semester exams, I was not able to write the article. However, my exams are going to end tomorrow after that I will start publishing articles. 

Friday, November 8, 2019

MUMBAI RAINS: MASSIVE RAINS LASHED MUMBAI IN VERY RARE RAIN MONTH NOVEMBER, REMNANT OF CYCLONE MAHA RESPONSIBLE, DRY WEATHER TO STEP IN TOMORROW ONWARDS.

Mumbai Rains

MASSIVE RAINS LASHED MUMBAI IN VERY RARE RAIN MONTH NOVEMBER, REMNANT OF CYCLONE MAHA RESPONSIBLE, DRY WEATHER TO STEP IN TOMORROW ONWARDS.

 HIGHLIGHTS:

1) Early morning heavy rains surprised Mumbaikars.

2) Goregaon received the highest rainfall of about 72mm in the last 24 hours ending 8:30 AM today.

3) The remnant of cyclone maha responsible for today's massive rains.

4) Dry weather likely to persist tomorrow onwards.

MUMBAI: Today morning all the Mumbaikars woked up to very rare heavy November rains. The reason for such sudden heavy rain was the remnant of cyclone maha which is hovering over the northeast Arabian sea off palghar district and south of Gujarat. In fact, the month of  November normally receives only 9.9 mm of rains. This year weather-wise is very historic, the monsoon which was very deficient in the month of  June ended statistically with about 10% excess than the normal in the month of September, All-time high Mumbai monsoon rain record was broken, now recently all-time high annual Mumbai rain record is broken and many more.

As soon as monsoon withdraws from the Mumbai the rains remain fare & very few. But this time it's a different scenario the Mumbai rains are not in the mood to take a backseat they showed their magic in the month of November also.

Tomorrow's Weather Forecast Of Mumbai:

The weather over Mumbai is very likely to turn dry tomorrow onwards as the system is going to weaken further and move away from the Mumbai region. Skies will turn clear with bright sunny days and very comfortable nights. Light breeze likely to persist.

Top 10 rainest places in Mumbai last 24 hours ending today at 8:30 am:

1) Goregaon: 72mm.
2) Chincholi Fire Station: 63mm.
3) Malad Fire Station: 53mm.
4) Chirak Nagar: 50mm.
5) Pr. Thackeray Natya Mandir: 49mm.
6) Kandivali Fire Station: 49mm.
7) Mulund Fire Station: 48mm.
8) Borivali Fire Station: 43mm.
9) Dahisar Fire Station: 39mm.
10) Bhandup: 36mm.

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM "MAHA" LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN DIU AND SOMNATH AS A CYCLONIC STORM AROUND 7TH MORNING.

Well Structured Cyclone With An Eye.

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM "MAHA" LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN DIU AND SOMNATH AS A 
CYCLONIC STORM AROUND 7TH MORNING. 

HIGHLIGHTS:
1) THE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING THE STRENGTH OF EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM(ESCS).

2)THE ESCS MAHA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARDS FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.

3) THE ESCS MAHA IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS RAPIDLY AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY.

4) THE ESCS STORM MAHA IS LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN DIU AND SOMNATH.

5) HEAVY RAINS WITH STRONG GUSTY WIND EXPECTED DURING LANDFALL.

6) WEATHER FORECAST OF MUMBAI & VASAI-VIRAR REGION FOR TOMORROW.

INDIA: The cyclonic storm maha rapidly intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm and then into an extremely severe cyclonic storm within 24 hours in the east-central    Arabian sea. Currently, the storm is present in the west-central Arabian sea and adjoining areas packing winds of about 170-180 kph gusting to 190 kph. 

Current Position of ESCS MAHA:


The Cyclonic Storm Maha is excepted to move in north direction for coming 3-6 hours and then it will start it's a journey towards south Gujarat coast in the east-northeast direction, gradually during Its rapid journey towards Gujarat coast it will start weakening as it will move closer to the land. The reason behind the recurve is the western disturbance which is approaching Jammu and Kashmir region.

Observed and Future Track of ESCS Maha by JTWC:

Observed & Future Track of ESCS Maha by IMD:



This Cyclone will weaken gradually into a cyclonic storm before it's landfall, it's landfall is expected between Diu and Somnath the south coastal Saurashtra region of Gujarat around 7th morning. During its landfall, the system will have a wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph associated with heavy rains.

HWRF Wind(kt) & MSLP(mb) During the Time of landfall:


The sea conditions will be very rough during the 6th/7th November, already the warning has been given to the fisherman by the government officials to come out from the deep seas.

Vasai-Virar & Mumbai weather forecast for
Tomorrow:

Tonight 5th November: Dry weather with clear skies condition.

Wednesday, 6th November: Dry weather to prevail between 12:00 am to 10:00 am with clear skies. From 10:00 am to 12:00 pm there is a very slim chance of very light rain in south Mumbai region other places to witness dry conditions with clear to partly cloudy skies conditions. Remaining part of the day to remain dry with partly cloudy skies conditions.
Temperature(max/min): 32-33/25-26.

Image credits: Britannica.com

Friday, November 1, 2019

THE JOURNEY OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM "MAHA", FOURTH CYCLONE OF THE SEASON IN THE ARABIAN SEA. TOTAL 6 CYCLONES HAVE FORMED IN THIS SEASON TILL PRESENT.

Cyclone Maha Crossing Lakshadweep Island.

THE JOURNEY OF THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM "MAHA", FOURTH CYCLONE OF THE  SEASON IN THE ARABIAN SEA. TOTAL 6 CYCLONES HAVE FORMED IN THIS SEASON TILL PRESENT.

Highlights:

1) Cyclone Maha the 4th cyclone formed in the Arabian sea.

2) The Journey of the severe cyclonic storm maha.

3) Cyclone Kyarr has now weakened into Depression over the west-central Arabian sea.

India: The Arabian sea is on fire mode as back to back weather systems are forming in the basin, these weather systems are also becoming more marked due to favorable conditions such as low vertical wind shear, Warm sea surface temperatures, abundant availability of moisture, high humidity levels, etc:-. Normally only 1 cyclone or 2 cyclones forms in the Arabian sea by records. But now due to climate change the dynamics of the Arabian sea are changing, more cyclones are forming and also they are becoming more intense. Researches also say that there will be more intense cyclones as the temperatures are increasing.

The 2019 north Indian ocean cyclone season is the most active cyclone season on record in terms of accumulated cyclone energy(ACE),  surpassing 2007. Furthermore, the season has been active, with six cyclonic storms, one severe, four others formed as very severe cyclonic storms and one super cyclonic storm. ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 63 km/h (39mph).

The Journey of Severe Cyclone "Maha" as per IMD:


  1. On 29th October, a low-pressure area intensified into the well-marked low-pressure area over the Comorin area and adjoining the equatorial Indian ocean.
  2. In the next 12 hours, it concentrated into a depression over the Maldive, coloring area & adjoining Lakshadweep area.
  3. On 30th October at 2:30 pm thee, depression further strengthened into a deep depression over Lakshadweep and adjoining S.E Arabian sea.
  4. Favorable conditions led to the rapid development of the system and in just 3 hours at 5:30 pm on 30th October it intensified into a cyclone, after which it was assigned the name "maha".
  5. It crossed the Lakshadweep island as a cyclonic storm with winds up to 80kmph.
  6. Amini Devi and Minicoy received extremely heavy rains of about 301mm and 119mm respectively.
  7. In the next 24 hours on 31st October, the system intensified into a severe cyclonic storm about 300 km off north Karnataka coast.
  8. Its movement during its journey was north/northwestwards till today.

   Severe cyclone maha tracked by IMD:



The system is going to intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm in the next 6-12 hours. This system is very likely to track west/northwestwards till 5th November and enter the west-central Arabian sea. But from 5th November it is very likely to track northeastwards towards the Indian west coast due to the western disturbance.

Observed and Future Track of Severe Cyclone Maha as per IMD:


The cyclone Kyarr has weakened into depression in morning hours, it is very likely to weaken into the well-marked low-pressure area during the next 6-12 hours, tracking southwards.